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GHG FORECASTING AND TARGET SETTING
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RECOMMENDATION
Review the recommended greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets for 2030 which include option 1 (Gross emissions: 29% below 2022 levels (3,639,577 MTCO2e), which equates to 40% below 1990 levels aligned with Senate Bill 32) and option 2 (Gross emissions: 39% below 2022 levels (3,154,300 MTCO2e), which equates to 48% below 1990 levels aligned with 2022 CA Scoping Plan recommendation) and determine the most encouraging reduction target for adoption and approval for the Stockton region.
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Summary
Staff and the technical consultant have reviewed and analyzed business-as-usual (BAU) and adjusted business-as-usual (ABAU) scenarios to exhibit potential emission impacts based on state and federal regulations. The CAPAC will review the BAU and ABAU comparisons, forecast results, and target recommendations to determine the most encouraging reduction target for 2030 for the Stockton region.
DISCUSSION
Background
As part of the Climate Pollution Reduction Grant Comprehensive Climate Action Plan (CCAP) development process, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires economy-wide near-term and long-term GHG emissions targets and strongly recommends setting sector-based targets. This GHG reduction targets for the Stockton MSA should align as closely as possible with those established by the State of California. These targets are not meant to replace any existing community GHG reduction targets within the MSA but can act as initial targets for communities that have not yet established official targets.
The consultant developed GHG reduction targets for the Stockton Metropolitan Statistical Area by establishing a baseline emissions inventory for 2022 and reviewing State of California GHG emissions targets set by legislation and agency planning documents. The State of California GHG reduction targets are 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 (based on Senate Bill 32) or 48% below 1990 levels by 2030 (based on the State of California’s 2022 Scoping Plan), as well as 85% below 1990 levels by 2045 (based on Assembly Bill 1279). Because the State of California’s targets use a 1990 baseline, the consultant used the Stockton MSA’s 2022 baseline inventory and the GHG emissions trajectory for the State of California from 1990 to 2022 to back estimate the Stockton MSA’s 1990 GHG emissions inventory. The state’s percent emission reduction targets (e.g., 48% by 2030 and 85% by 2045) were then applied to Stockton’s estimated 1990 emission levels to estimate Stockton’s targeted emissions levels in 2030 and 2045. Because the State of California has two target options for 2030, the Stockton MSA also has two target options for 2030, based on either the Scoping Plan or Senate Bill 32.
Present Situation
The City of Stockton has a Climate Action Plan established in 2014. However, there is no regional Climate Action Plan for the Stockton MSA. The determination of GHG emissions reduction targets for 2030 will allow the City of Stockton to propose a target for GHG emissions reductions based on its current set of GHG emissions inventory with a baseline of 2022. The CAPAC will review all the presented data and two emissions target options for 2030 to determine the most encouraging GHG reduction target option to approve and adopt.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
This is informational only and will have no direct financial impact on the City Departments.