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REVIEW OF QUANTIFICATION SUMMARY FOR THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS MITIGATION ACTIONS
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RECOMMENDATION
Review the cumulative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions of all selected mitigation actions for the Stockton Climate Action and Adaptation Plan, compare the cumulative emissions reductions to the established emissions reduction targets, and discuss barriers to target achievement.
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Summary
The technical consultant will provide a high-level review of the cumulative GHG co-pollutant and emissions reductions resulting from the selected GHG mitigation actions, the actions' impact on meeting the GHG reduction targets, and barriers to target achievement.
DISCUSSION
Background
As part of the Climate Action and Adaptation Plan (CAAP) development, the technical consultant will quantify greenhouse gas emissions reduction and co-pollutant reductions from each strategy to 2030 and 2045.
Compared to 2022 gross emissions levels, the CAAP mitigation actions could achieve a 13% reduction in gross emissions by 2030 and 41% reduction by 2045, which means the current CCAAP actions alone will most likely not achieve the 2030 and 2045 targets. This is not unexpected as the CCAAP actions do not represent a comprehensive list of all feasible actions, and most major regional emission sources fall partly or entirely outside the control of local governing bodies. While meeting carbon neutrality targets and limiting warming to 1.5°C remains technologically feasible, significant institutional and financial barriers make this outcome increasingly unlikely. Even if targets are not met, every ton avoided matters as even partial reductions slow climate change, reduce future damages, and provide additional community benefits.
The quantification methodology previously discussed at the November 19, 2025, committee meeting included direct, indirect and foundational emissions reduction strategies.
Present Situation
The final Comprehensive Climate Action and Adaptation plan will include an in-depth analysis of each selected greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation action quantifying the action’s ability and impact to reduce co-pollutants and GHG emissions. The actual quantification for each action is specific and will vary based on the contents of each action. The technical consultant will present a high-level quantification summary of the selected mitigation action GHG emissions reductions compared to emissions forecasts and targets. The technical consultant will then discuss the barriers to GHG target achievement, including the need for more regional, state, and federal action, institutional and financial barriers, and the feasibility of reaching carbon neutrality targets on established timelines.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
This is informational only and will have no direct financial impacts on the City Departments.