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OVERVIEW OF PRELIMINARY CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT UPDATED RESULTS
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RECOMMENDATION
Review update to the climate vulnerability assessment for the City of Stockton.
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Summary
The technical consultant will provide a review of the update to the climate vulnerability assessment results for the City of Stockton’s infrastructure and communities through geospatial analysis. The climate vulnerability assessment results were initially presented at the December 2025 committee meeting.
DISCUSSION
Background
The climate vulnerability assessment (CVA) describes projected climate change and impacts on San Joaquin County and, specifically, the City of Stockton’s critical facilities, transportation infrastructure, utility infrastructure, natural systems, and socially vulnerable communities. Rising global temperatures are driving significant shifts in climate patterns, leading to more frequent and intense heat events. These changes also trigger secondary impacts, including extreme precipitation, prolonged droughts, inland flooding, sea level rise, and increased wildfire risk.
Building on the results shared during last month’s meeting, the climate vulnerability assessment has now been updated with urban heat island analysis to identify areas within the City of Stockton that experience elevated urban temperatures due to the presence of paved surfaces and other infrastructure. By including the urban heat island effect, the vulnerability assessment can identify assets within the City that face greater exposure to heat and should be prioritized for heat mitigation strategies. The urban heat island data is developed from the California Environmental Protection Agency’s 2015 urban heat island study, which remains the most comprehensive analysis of heat islands in California.
Additionally, the climate vulnerability assessment update also includes findings on vulnerable communities, who are more likely to face greater consequences from climate impacts and have more challenges to recover and respond to climate hazards. To do so, the project team worked with the City of Stockton to identify key indicators for higher population sensitivities to climate hazards, which include outdoor workers, people with disabilities, older adults, linguistic isolation, poverty rate, and impervious surface coverage. In addition, the Healthy Places Index was also included as an indicator of overall community health, with lower health linked to greater sensitivity to climate hazards. These indicators were combined as an overall sensitivity score for each Stockton census tract, which was then combined with heat and flood exposure to identify Stockton census tracts with the greatest vulnerability to extreme heat and flooding, respectively. Extreme heat and flooding were chosen as the hazards of concern, as they have the most severe health and financial consequences to communities, while drought was not included, as it is typically a chronic hazard that poses risks to infrastructure and economies.
The climate vulnerability assessment provides updates to climate vulnerability findings for key assets within the City of Stockton.
Present Situation
The technical consultant team will present the climate vulnerability assessment results for key assets and communities. This is an update to the climate vulnerability assessment. Updates provided in this item include the inclusion of urban heat island in the extreme heat exposure analysis, findings on vulnerable communities, and updated climate vulnerability assessment results for City of Stockton assets. These findings will form the foundation of adaptation strategies and resilience actions for the City. Key findings include high vulnerability to flooding for individual medical facilities, and fire and police stations, and high vulnerability to extreme heat and flooding for individual schools and community centers. Meanwhile, the majority of roads have low vulnerability to extreme heat, and 15% of bridges have vulnerability to flooding. For utilities, wastewater treatment plants have low vulnerabilities to hazards, while one water treatment plant and 20% of pump stations have high vulnerability to flooding.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
This is informational only and will have no direct financial impact on the City Departments.